Rumor, Reality, and Math Errors in Elections

The Math Error in One Minute

In 2022, the probability of a precinct being selected for audit was between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5. With these odds, one would expect a fair number of precincts would be selected twice and a few three times. Yet, the audit report includes one precinct being selected an astronomically improbable 41 times. The instructions below show how the reader can see the 41 selections themselves:

1. Search the internet for (no quotes):

New Mexico Election Audit

2. One of the results should be https://www.sos.nm.gov/voting-and-elections/voter-information-portal-nmvote-org/election-audits-2/, although the position in the results list may vary. Click the link.

3. You will see a list of audits from 2004 to present. Find the row for 2022 and click on the link Open File near the right margin.

4. A pdf file should open in a tab, but some browsers may save the file to your disk. Use the built-in browser search command (shortcut is control-F) and search for (no quotes):

PCT 307

5. The browser should say there are 42 hits. If you use the Chrome browser, the second hit will look like:

Interpreting What You See

The first hit is within the list of precincts selected for hand audit. It indicates Bernalillo County precinct 307 was selected. The other 41 hits are dice rolls that selected precinct 307.

In a video-recorded public meeting, staff from a private accounting firm rolled seven dice as a group and entered their values into an Excel spreadsheet as shown above. The dice had 10 sides as shown below and the values were entered into columns of the corresponding color. The audit report contains a "cut-and-paste" version of the Excel spreadsheet that was filled out during the public meeting.

The spreadsheet computed the precinct name in the column labeled "Precinct #." Precinct 307 was selected 41 times. You can click through the hits and see the dice values for each.

In the 2022 audit, 157 dice rolls specified Bernalillo County, so 41 out of 157 dice rolls selected the same precinct, which is astronomically improbable.

Next Step

The 41 selections of one precinct are a math error. The Summary of Analysis on the next page shows how they affect the validity of the audit.